The Impact of the Two-Child Policy on the Number of Orphans

At the end of October China announced the end to its infamous one-child policy.  The headlines were attention-grabbing, but also deceiving.  Women in China still do not have reproductive freedom, as the government simply allows them to have two children instead of one.  The eased family planning policy that now applies to all Chinese citizens in China has actually been in place since 2013 for couples who are both only children and for families in rural areas.  Ethnic minorities have never been subject to the one-child policy.

In a country where families supposedly abandon their girls in the quest for a boy, how will the new two-child policy affect the number of children entering orphanages?  In my opinion, the policy will have little impact on the number of orphans, particularly children with special needs who make up the majority of children in Chinese orphanages.

Among healthy children, there may be a slight decrease as families who need/want/unexpectedly have a second child, won't be forced to abandon their children.  There are reasons beyond government policy though that prompt parents to abandon their children, namely poverty, but also the stigma in China against unwed mothers. So long as these issues remain prevalent, there will be parents who cannot continue to care for their children.   

There will also be plenty of families who don't take advantage of the opportunity to have a second child.  In a society where only-children are the norm, there are couple who are satisfied with having one child, and in a country where it is expensive to raise children, there are other couples don't think they can afford to have a second child.

For children born with special needs, I do not believe the change in policy will reduce how many of them enter orphanages.  Sadly, there is still a HUGE stigma against people with disabilities in China, particularly visible disabilities, and they are often denied access to school or jobs.  In a society where your pride and social status are derived from how well your children excel at school or your survival in old age literally depends on having a healthy child who can one day support you, your obsession with bearing a healthy baby does not lesson because you now get a second chance.

Even when parents desperately want to keep their children with special needs, all the reasons that force parents of healthy children to abandon them, (such as poverty) apply to these parents as well, except more is threatening children staying with their biological families. To raise a child with special needs, you need access to medical care and on-going therapy or other resources, and depending upon where they live or their income level, this may not be the case. Lack of education can also play a role in abandonment when parents don't know that a condition can be treated or cured. 

China revised its decades-long one-child policy in response to economic concerns, not because it's trying to reduce the number of children abandoned.  If that is to be a goal, the government will need to address poverty, access to medical care, social security, services for families, discrimination against those with disabilities and all the other myriad of issues that factor into whether a parent can keep his or her child or not.  Until then, Chinese orphanages will continue to take in children who are not orphans because their parents are no longer living, but who have parents who are unable to care for them.